Rapid onset gender dysphoria (ROGD), the idea that gender non-conformity is a social contagion spreading through the world’s youth, is flatly pseudoscientific. Multiple studies have found no evidence for ROGD. One even identified a decrease in the number of adolescents coming out as trans since 2018. Another found that trans youth wait 3-6 years between discovering their trans identity and seeking affirming medical care.
Last month, yet another study discrediting the ROGD theory was published. The article, published in Monographs of the Society for Research in Child Development, takes aim a central tenet of ROGD thought: that trans identities are merely fads that youth grow out of. If this were true, than you would anticipate that tracking a cohort of trans adolescents over years would reveal moments where the fad ends and people return to cis identities.
This was exactly what a team of scholars at Princeton University did as part of the TransYouth Project. They followed three cohorts of North American youth: trans adolescents (whose families supported their transition), their cis siblings, and unrelated cis adolescents. The two groups of cis youth were used for out-group comparisons.
Researchers met with the study participants and their parents almost yearly over the course of 6-7 years. During each visit, they separately asked the adolescent and their parent(s) a series of questions about the child’s gender identity. Researchers then compared these responses for each individual over time to assess whether and how individuals in each cohort changed their gender identity.
First, the entire participant pool showed remarkably consistent gender identities. Over the multi-year study, 80-85% of each cohort identified as the same gender identity reported in their initial interview. This includes trans youth (81.6%), their cis siblings (80.8%), and unrelated cis youth (86.0%). These data conclude that neither trans nor cis youth are more likely to shift their gender identity.
Next, the authors analyzed how participants shifted their gender identity. ROGD theories would predict that many trans youth re-identified with their birth-assigned gender. However, this was not what the researchers observed. Instead, the small portion of trans youth who shifted their gender identity did so from a binary gender identity to a gender diverse identity - rejecting the gender binary altogether. This movement was also the most common shift in the two cisgender cohorts. In total, these data provide no evidence for ROGD theory.
Shifts in gender identity from the adolescent’s recruitment to the study to their most recent visit with the research team | deMayo et al. 2025, Monographs of the Society for Research in Child Development | doi: 10.1111/mono.12479 | no edits were made | CC BY 4.0
Last, the researchers compared the responses from adolescents themselves and from their parent(s). In general, parents of any cohort had trouble perceiving gender expansive qualities in their children, often confusing non-binary expressions with binary identities.
This fundamental misconception points to the tactics used by ROGD theorists to popularize their views. First, they insist on the using outdated, binary gender norms which cis/het adults find comfortable. This invalidates a wide swath of adolescents’ gender expansive identities and fuels some parents’ tendency to find their own children illegible. Anti-trans ROGD activists seize upon this manufactured schism to drown out the voices all trans-identifying youth. In doing so, these activists cast adolescents’ rightful self-determination as merely silly and unserious childhood whimsy.
In truth, children make decisions for themselves even at young ages when, for example, they gravitate toward toys that society has gendered for them. As early as age 3, both cis and trans children make these decisions to align with their internal gender identity.
When I was a child at that age (2-3 years old), I did the same even though I didn’t come out until I was 25. We visited my great grandmother daily, and at each visit I would grab her collection of wooden toy rings. I knew these multicolored rings would look great on my wrists, so at each visit I wore them as bracelets. One day, my bracelet collection disappeared, and I started looking for alternate outlets for the femininity I felt inside myself.
I wasn’t confused for wanting to adorn my wrists, just as contemporary trans youth aren’t confused for finding ways to express themselves. These expressions are authentic and ultimately endearing - which is why they are systematically being trivialized and suppressed.
Thus it is imperative to amplify the voices of trans adolescents who are courageously sharing their stories amidst the ongoing rollback of trans rights and inclusion. One such person is fifteen-year-old Becky Pepper-Jackson who is suing the state of West Virginia over its ban on trans sports participation. Her case is set to be argued in front of the United States Supreme Court in the upcoming term. As Pepper-Jackson’s mother told NBC News in 2023, “if she didn’t start the fight, who’s going to?”
from the archive
